As we head into the second week of June 2025, global financial markets remain on edge. A mix of upcoming inflation data, central bank decisions, and lingering geopolitical tensions could create significant volatility. Traders should be vigilant as these variables play a key role in shaping short-term direction across forex, commodities, and indices.

Global Economic Overview

The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations with resilient labor market data and strong service sector performance. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, forcing policymakers to maintain a hawkish stance. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, sluggish growth and sticky inflation are keeping the ECB in a delicate position—hawkish in tone but cautious in action.

China’s stimulus efforts are starting to lift certain sectors, though consumer confidence remains weak. Ongoing tensions in Taiwan and the Red Sea region, coupled with unpredictability in energy markets, are adding a layer of risk that traders must account for.

Key Economic Events This Week (10th – 14th June)

Tuesday, June 11

U.S. Core CPI (MoM & YoY) – A critical inflation reading that could influence the Fed’s next steps.

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment – Insight into investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy.

Wednesday, June 12

U.K. GDP (MoM) – Snapshot of post-Brexit economic health and BOE outlook.

U.S. Federal Budget Balance – Measures government fiscal trends.

Thursday, June 13

U.S. PPI (Producer Prices Index) – Another inflation metric ahead of next Fed policy signals.

U.S. Jobless Claims – Weekly look into labor market strength.

Friday, June 14

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Reflects U.S. consumer confidence and inflation expectations.

 Fundamental Analysis

1. Central Bank Sentiment & Interest Rates

The Fed remains data-dependent, but any surprise jump in inflation this week could reignite speculation of another rate hike. The euro remains under pressure as growth slows across the continent, while the Bank of England walks a tightrope between inflation and stagnation.

2. Inflation Dynamics

U.S. CPI and PPI data this week are in the spotlight. While headline inflation is slowing, core prices—especially in services—remain stubborn. This supports a “higher-for-longer” narrative on interest rates.

3. Labor Market Conditions

Recent NFP data showed job gains cooling, but not collapsing. With jobless claims and consumer sentiment reports this week, traders should watch closely for signs of a labor market turning point.

4. Commodities & Gold

Oil prices remain choppy as OPEC+ sends mixed signals on future cuts. Gold is consolidating just below $2,350/oz, showing strength amid uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. Watch for potential breakout if inflation surprises to the upside.

5. Geopolitical Flashpoints

Instability in the Taiwan Strait, Red Sea shipping disruptions, and growing Middle East tensions could act as catalysts for sudden market swings. These factors may drive safe-haven flows into USD, CHF, and gold.

Technical Analysis:

This week we  are  looking  at EURUSD once again, looking at the 4  hour time frame we can see that  price failed to push to the upside, with NFP release breaking the highs then proceeding to retrace, this week we can potentially see  some  more retracement before the CPI release which could potentially push us to the upside as we start  the  longer term bull run.

Final Thoughts

This is a week loaded with high-impact economic data that could alter monetary policy expectations—especially in the U.S. Risk management is non-negotiable. Be disciplined, stay patient, and always combine your technical insights with the fundamentals.

Wishing all our traders at Propel Capital a sharp and profitable trading week ahead!