As we step into mid-August, markets remain highly sensitive to inflation data, central bank policy shifts, and trade tensions. This week’s economic calendar is stacked with key releases that could shape short-term momentum in forex, commodities, and indices. Traders should prepare for volatility as policymakers and data releases set the tone.

Global Economic Overview

United States – All eyes are on the latest CPI data (Tuesday), which could determine whether the Fed sticks to its cautious stance or hints at further tightening. Persistent core inflation, combined with newly imposed tariffs, is keeping the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative alive.

Eurozone – The ECB remains in a tricky spot. Growth remains sluggish, but inflation isn’t falling as fast as expected. Market focus will be on how policymakers balance easing pressure with inflation risks.

United Kingdom – After last week’s 25 bps rate cut to 4%, the BoE signalled that further easing would be slow and data-dependent. This week’s GDP data will be key in assessing whether the UK economy is stabilising or slipping toward recession.

Asia-Pacific – The RBA is widely expected to cut rates again in an attempt to stimulate demand. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India has kept rates steady at 5.5%, prioritising stability amid global trade disruptions.

Geopolitical Risks – U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs, which have pushed average import duties to their highest since the 1930s, are rattling global trade flows. Upcoming 50% tariffs on Indian imports (effective Aug 27) could further disrupt emerging markets and commodities. Rising tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz continue to add uncertainty to energy markets.

Key Economic Events This Week (11th – 15th August)

Tuesday, Aug 12

U.S. CPI (MoM & YoY) – Critical for Fed policy outlook.

S&P Global Investment Manager Index – Market sentiment gauge.

Wednesday, Aug 13

U.K. GDP (MoM) – Insight into post-rate cut momentum.

Thursday, Aug 14

Australia Unemployment Rate – Labour market strength post-RBA cuts.

Friday, Aug 15

U.S. Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan) – Confidence and inflation expectations.

Fundamental Analysis

Central Banks & Interest Rates

The Fed remains focused on inflation trends. A hot CPI print could strengthen USD and pressure equities, while a softer reading might support gold and risk assets.

Inflation Pressures

U.S. tariffs are adding to import costs, keeping inflation sticky. Gold has been consolidating above $2,350/oz and could break higher if CPI comes in above expectations.

Credit Market Signals

Corporate credit spreads remain extremely tight, a sign of investor complacency. Historically, such levels have preceded equity pullbacks.

Commodity Moves

Oil prices remain choppy, reacting to Middle East tensions. Gold and silver are showing bullish momentum, backed by central bank buying.

Technical Analysis

This week we are watching DXY closely. On the daily chart, price action shows signs of consolidation after recent gains. A strong CPI could push the dollar higher, while a weak reading could see a retracement toward key support levels.

Final Thoughts

It’s a pivotal week for inflation data and central bank signals. Traders should stay nimble, avoid overleveraging ahead of CPI, and watch for breakouts in gold and USD pairs. Risk management remains essential — let the market confirm before making big moves.

Wishing all our traders at Propel Capital a disciplined and profitable week ahead!