As we may know, we are currently experiencing a lot of uncertainty in the markets, with a major trade war that has kicked off with USA and the rest of the world, the other major power that has been fighting back and hitting America with equal tariffs is China. This has caused increased volatility for the USD pairs and Indices. We saw the S&P 500, Nas100 and Dow Jones all drop more in one week than what we have seen since the great crash of 2008 where the housing market crashed. We can see that any pair that has the USD involved has extreme volatility, for example we can see that EURUSD on the daily chart is moving more than what it was moving on a weekly basis a few months ago. This can be seen along most of the charts.

Daily Time Frame:

Weekly time Frame:

Many people get scared in these market conditions but as long as you have a plan you can make it out on the other side and make money from it. Increased volatility means an increase in opportunities. Now this means that you need to be stricter with your rules and make sure you adapt to the market conditions, personally I am looking at setups on the higher time frames only. This means that my stop loss will widen and take profits will be bigger too, but the risk is still the same. Make sure to secure your profits as the markets are extremely volatile meaning that you can be deep in profits and price can come back and take you out. It is very important that you stick to your trading plan only take high probability setups, if you are forcing trades you will get humbled in these markets

Trade Wars and Market Impact

The ongoing trade wars, particularly between the United States and major global economies such as China and the European Union, have intensified in recent weeks. These conflicts are primarily driven by aggressive tariff implementations, sanctions on key industries, and restrictions on technology and resource exports. The U.S. has targeted sectors like semiconductors, green energy components, and AI-related technologies, while countries like China have responded with retaliatory tariffs on agricultural goods, industrial products, and financial services.

This back-and-forth has sparked a ripple effect across global markets. Uncertainty has gripped investors, leading to sharp declines in U.S. indices such as the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen have surged as traders seek stability. In the forex markets, USD pairs have become highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, often moving significantly within short time frames.

For traders, this kind of environment demands agility and discipline. The traditional correlations and predictable market behavior have been disrupted. For example, we’re seeing unexpected strength in commodity-based currencies like the AUD and CAD due to shifting global supply chain dynamics. Additionally, global companies heavily reliant on international trade are facing downward pressure, dragging down indices with them.

It’s critical in these conditions to be news-aware and technically sharp. Combining fundamental understanding of the macroeconomic shifts with precise technical execution is what will separate successful traders from those caught off guard.

Fundamental analysis:

Global :

The global economy is navigating a turbulent period marked by escalating trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and policy shifts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth to remain steady at 3.3% in 2025, with inflation expected to decline to 4.5%. However, these forecasts are clouded by the intensifying trade war initiated by the U.S., which has imposed sweeping tariffs, including a 104% levy on Chinese goods. This has led to retaliatory measures from China and other nations, disrupting global trade flows and supply chains.​

United States:
The U.S. economy is experiencing heightened volatility due to aggressive trade policies. The Federal Reserve maintains its benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, aiming to balance inflation control with economic growth. New York Fed President John Williams warns that tariffs could push inflation to 3.5%-4% and increase unemployment to 4.5%-5%. The stock market has reacted sharply, with the S&P 500 experiencing significant swings, reflecting investor uncertainty.

Europe:

​

European economies are grappling with the fallout from global trade tensions. The European Central Bank (ECB) has revised down its growth projections to 0.9% for 2025, citing lower exports and investment. ECB officials have expressed readiness to ensure financial stability and are considering interest rate cuts to support the economy The Bank of England has also taken measures to address market volatility, including halting a £600 million auction of long-dated government bonds.​

Asia:

China’s economy shows signs of resilience amid trade challenges. In March 2025, Chinese banks issued 3.64 trillion yuan ($500 billion) in new loans, surpassing expectations and indicating robust credit growth. The People’s Bank of China is expected to continue its accommodative policies to support domestic demand. In India, the Reserve Bank cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, aiming to bolster economic activity amid easing inflation.

Commodities and safe havens:

Gold has seen increased demand as central banks diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar, driven by geopolitical uncertainties. Oil prices have declined, with crude oil closing around $60 per barrel, the lowest since 2021, due to fears of a global recession dampening demand

outlook:

The global economic landscape remains uncertain, with trade tensions posing significant risks to growth. Central banks are adopting varied approaches, balancing between stimulating growth and controlling inflation. Investors should remain vigilant, as market conditions are likely to remain volatile in the near term.. Its important to note that there is many short term opportunities in the markets at the moment, but you need to make sure that you do not get stuck in your bias as it is continuously changing with every single move and counter move that is happening between the worlds powers.

There is no technical analysis for this week as we wait to see what the news brings this week but please make sure you stay safe and be strict in the coming weeks.