Welcome back, traders! Here’s your breakdown of the week ahead in the markets.

Key Events on the Economic Calendar

Tuesday – 16 July

-🇺🇸 US Core CPI (June)

-🇩🇪 German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Wednesday – 17 July

-🇬🇧 UK CPI

-🇺🇸 US Industrial Production

Thursday – 18 July

-🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims

-🇺🇸 PPI (Producer Price Index)

Friday – 19 July

-🇺🇸 Building Permits & Housing Starts

-🇪🇺 Eurozone Final CPI

 This week’s focus will be on inflation data (CPI/PPI), which will influence rate expectations from the Fed going into Q3.

Fundamentals to Watch

Inflation & Interest Rate Expectations

All eyes are on the US CPI and PPI prints this week. The Fed has kept rates on hold recently, but a hotter-than-expected inflation print could delay any talk of rate cuts. Core CPI is forecast at +0.3% MoM — a reading above that could strengthen the USD and put pressure on risk assets.

Oil Volatility & Geopolitical Tensions

Rising Saudi output and a spike in OPEC+ exports have increased supply.

Iran continues to make threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz — any escalation here could drive oil sharply higher.

Watch WTI and Brent as safe-haven energy plays.

Global Risk Sentiment

Political tension in Turkey is weighing on the lira.

Continued uncertainty over delayed US-EU tariff decisions is keeping global equities on edge.

Asian markets are under pressure from lower demand out of China and Japan.

Markets may get choppy this week if inflation spooks investors.

Consider staying cautious on overextended longs.

Trading Psychology Tip of the Week

“Avoid Forecasting—React Instead.”

With so much riding on CPI this week, it’s easy to get caught up in guessing the outcome. Instead, prepare for both scenarios and react after the data is released.

Set alerts. Stick to your rules. Trade the confirmation — not the speculation.

Final Word

This week could bring heightened volatility, especially around mid-week CPI and PPI data. Stay sharp, follow the fundamentals, and manage your risk tightly. If markets surprise, don’t chase — let the setup come to you.

Trade smart,

The Propel Capital Team