1. Key Conflicts on the Radar

• U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (June 22–23, 2025): Three major sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—were targeted. President Trump claimed this “nullified” Iran’s nuclear capability. Iran has responded with threats, including closing the Strait of Hormuz
• Israeli‑Iran war: Israeli airstrikes hit over 100 Iranian military and nuclear sites on June 13. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel
• Ongoing Russia‑Ukraine war: Continues to weigh on energy and commodity markets globally.

2. Oil: The Epicenter of Disruption

• Sharp price jump: Brent crude surged to a five‑month high (~$78/barrel), with surges of 3–6.2% in the immediate aftermath of U.S. strikes
• Geopolitical risk premium: Markets have embedded a $12 premium; Goldman suggests Brent could hit $90 and even reach $110 under deeper supply shocks
• Strait of Hormuz danger: Iran’s parliament voted to close the strait. A full blockade could propel oil prices above $100–150/barrel, severely hurting global growth and igniting inflation

3. Equities, Safe Havens & Central Banks

• Equity markets wobble: Asia‑Pacific shares fell (~1%), U.S. & European futures dipped, and airline stocks plunged.
• Flight to safety: Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, gold, and the Swiss franc rallied as investors sought safe harbours
• Fed’s dilemma: Rising oil input costs and geo‑risks complicate the Fed’s path; rate cuts remain on the table but may be delayed by inflation pressures

4. Investor Scenarios & Strategic Positioning

Scenario 1: De‑escalation
If Iran concedes or negotiates, oil could stabilize (with prices retreating toward the $70–80 range), equities may recover, and central banks could resume a more dovish stance. Citi forecasts S&P 500 rallying to 6,300–7,000 by year-end

Scenario 2: Escalation
Iran retaliates via attacks on shipping, oil‑infrastructure or through a proxy war. Oil could breach $100/barrel, S&P 500 could drop 10–20% on risk‑off dynamics, and inflation would likely rise.

Scenario 3: Regional flare-up with fractures in Iran
Intensifying internal instability or regime change in Iran could yield mixed results: oil may stabilize once control shifts, but uncertainty and inconsistent supply patterns could result in volatility.

5. Propel Insights & Trading Opportunities

6. Macro Outlook: What Lies Ahead

• Inflation & growth: Oil surges will raise energy and transportation costs—impacting inflation and scaling back GDP growth.
• Central banking: Fed and other central bankers may delay or reduce stimulus while monitoring costs. Balance sheets may also tilt toward safe-haven assets if risk persists.
• Emerging markets: Currencies tied to oil imports (e.g., Indian rupee, Turkish lira) may face depreciation and capital outflows

 Conclusion

The U.S. bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites marks a serious escalation with powerful consequences for global markets—most notably in oil, equities, currencies, and central bank policy. Whether this flashpoint escalates into prolonged conflict or paves way for negotiation will determine market trajectories. At Propel, the focus remains on tactical hedging, defensive positioning, and prioritizing liquidity.

As always, we’ll be monitoring developments closely and tuning strategies accordingly. Let me know if you’d like to drill into any of these sectors or assets—or craft trader-friendly content in this evolving geopolitical backdrop!