U.S. April Jobs Report: Resilience Amid Trade Tensions

On Friday, May 2, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 177,000 jobs in April, surpassing expectations of 130,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.2%, marking a 3.8% rise over the past year.

Sector Highlights:

• Healthcare: Added 51,000 jobs, consistent with its 12-month average.
• Transportation and Warehousing: Gained 29,000 jobs, more than double its average monthly gain.
• Financial Activities: Increased by 14,000 jobs, continuing its upward trend.
• Federal Government: Employment declined by 9,000, totaling a loss of 26,000 jobs since January.

Despite the positive headline numbers, economists caution that these figures may not fully reflect the impact of recent trade policies, as the data collection occurred before the implementation of new tariffs.

 Global Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies

🇺🇸 United States:

• Federal Reserve: The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5% during its May 6–7 meeting. However, market participants are closely watching for signals of potential rate cuts in the coming months, especially if economic data shows signs of weakening.

🇪🇺 Eurozone:

• European Central Bank (ECB): The ECB is monitoring the effects of global trade tensions on the euro area economy. While inflation and unemployment rates remain steady, the central bank is prepared to adjust policies if necessary to support growth.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom:

• Bank of England (BoE): The BoE is anticipated to reduce its key interest rate to 4.25%, responding to mixed economic signals and uncertainties surrounding global trade policies.

 Currency Markets:

• U.S. Dollar (USD): The stronger-than-expected NFP report provided temporary support to the USD. However, ongoing trade tensions and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy could lead to increased volatility.

Equities:

• Global Stock Markets: Major indices, including the S&P 500, showed resilience following the jobs report. Nonetheless, investors remain cautious due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and their potential impact on corporate earnings.

Commodities:

• Gold (XAU/USD): Gold prices remain sensitive to economic data and central bank policies. Traders should monitor developments closely, as shifts in interest rate expectations could influence gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Fundamental Analysis:

Global markets continue to face heightened uncertainty as trade tensions dominate the landscape following the U.S.’s sweeping new tariffs and retaliatory measures from China and other major economies. While April’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report (177,000 jobs added) temporarily supported risk sentiment, underlying concerns remain about the broader impact of trade wars on global growth. Central banks, including the ECB and Bank of England, are leaning dovish as they grapple with slowing economic momentum, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious amid mixed signals. Equities and risk assets remain vulnerable to negative headlines, while gold and defensive sectors attract safe-haven flows. In this environment, traders should remain agile — balancing short-term opportunities with disciplined risk management as volatility and macroeconomic crosswinds continue to drive market direction.

Technical Analysis:

This week we have the same bias as price  has now tapped into our area of interest we can now see on the 4 hour chart, that price is potentially looking very bullish, only thing that concerns the potential buys is the  NFP rejection candle  where price pushed the highs and then rejected it. This doesn’t make the buys invalid, it just means we need to be weary of that level and a potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Trading Tips for the Week Ahead

1. Monitor Economic Data: Keep an eye on upcoming releases, including inflation figures and central bank meeting outcomes, to gauge market sentiment.
2. Stay Informed on Trade Developments: Be aware of any new trade policy announcements or negotiations that could impact global markets.
3. Risk Management: Given the potential for increased volatility, ensure that risk management strategies are in place, including appropriate stop-loss orders and position sizing.
4. Diversify Portfolios: Consider diversifying investments across asset classes and geographies to mitigate risks associated with specific markets or sectors.