This week, global financial markets have been reacting to key economic events, central bank decisions, and geopolitical developments. Traders are closely monitoring major currency pairs, indices, and commodities for potential opportunities. Here’s a breakdown of what’s moving the markets:

The State of the Global Economy The global economy is facing a period of uncertainty, with inflationary pressures, fluctuating interest rates, and geopolitical tensions shaping market sentiment. While central banks have taken measures to control inflation, the impact of past rate hikes continues to ripple through various sectors. Economic growth remains uneven, with some regions showing resilience while others struggle with slowing demand and rising debt burdens. Supply chain disruptions and energy market volatility further add to the economic complexity, making it essential for traders to stay informed about shifting global conditions.

News events for the week:

Monday, March 31, 2025

• China Manufacturing PMI: An indicator of economic health in China’s manufacturing sector. ​
• China Non-Manufacturing PMI: Measures the performance of the services sector in China. ​
• U.S. Chicago Business Barometer (PMI): Reflects business conditions in the Chicago area; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: A key indicator of economic activity in the manufacturing sector; readings below 50 suggest contraction. ​
• U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS): Provides insight into labour demand and labour market tightness. ​

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

• U.S. ADP Employment Report: Offers an early look at employment growth, ahead of the official nonfarm payrolls data. ​
• U.S. Factory Orders: Indicates the health of the manufacturing sector and future production activity. ​

Thursday, April 3, 2025

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits, providing insight into labour market conditions.
• U.S. Trade Balance: Measures the difference between exports and imports; a larger deficit can impact GDP calculations. ​
• U.S. ISM Services PMI: Assesses the performance of the services sector; a reading above 50 indicates expansion. ​

Friday, April 4, 2025

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report: The most anticipated employment data, indicating the number of jobs added or lost; a key indicator of economic health. ​
• U.S. Unemployment Rate: Measures the percentage of the total labour force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment. ​
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings: Provides insight into wage growth and inflationary pressures.

Fundamental analysis:

Fundamental analysis in trading focuses on evaluating economic indicators, central bank policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment to determine the intrinsic value of assets. Key factors include:

Interest Rates & Central Banks: Higher interest rates strengthen the currency, while lower rates weaken it. Traders watch for policy changes from the Federal Reserve, ECB, and other central banks.

Inflation & Employment Data: Rising inflation may lead to rate hikes, while strong job growth signals economic strength, influencing currency and stock movements.

Geopolitical Events: Wars, trade disputes, and political instability create volatility and drive safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar.

Corporate Earnings & GDP Growth: Strong earnings and economic expansion boost stock markets, while recessions lead to risk aversion.

Supply & Demand in Commodities: Oil, gold, and other assets react to global demand shifts and production changes, affecting market trends.

Technical analysis:

This week  we will be looking at  EURUSD again, as we can see that it is following market structure to the upside on the 4 hour time frame, with that being  said it is setting up for a reversal as we can see that liquidity has been grabbed, and on the higher time frames we are still  bearish as this small bull run can be seen as a potential deeper pull back which is there to  get more buyers in the market and late sellers out.

This  being  said  it should be a good week  for EURUSD and I would urge everyone to do their own analysis and research to make their decisions.

Wish you all best of  luck for the week  ahead