As we approach the week of March 17–21, 2025, we are experiencing a lot of volatility in the markets, with Gold pushing new highs, stock markets are crashing due to the trade wars and the majority of people worrying about America going into a recession which is becoming more evident every day. We know that Trump knows what he is doing when it comes to the Economical power of the United States, but investors are naturally going to worry and protect their capital. The nas100 indices has crashed more than 10% in the last week. That being said there is lots of possibilities if you are looking for very volatile markets, then XAUUSD and NASDAQ would be great to look at, but on the safer side the dollar would be best to sit away from for the time being.

Weekly Economic Calendar: March 17–21, 2025

Monday, March 17

12:30 PM – USD Core Retail Sales M/M: Measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles.

12:30 PM – USD Retail Sales M/M: Reflects the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., providing insight into consumer spending trends.

Tuesday, March 18

12:30 PM – CAD CPI M/M: Indicates the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Canada, serving as a primary gauge of inflation.

12:30 PM – CAD Median CPI Y/Y: Represents the year-over-year change in the median price of goods and services, offering a central tendency of inflation.

12:30 PM – CAD Trimmed CPI Y/Y: Reflects the year-over-year change in the CPI, excluding the most volatile items, providing a clearer inflation trend.

Wednesday, March 19

TENTATIVE – JPY BOJ Policy Rate: The Bank of Japan’s decision on short-term interest rates, influencing the cost of borrowing.

TENTATIVE – JPY Monetary Policy Statement: Provides insights into the BOJ’s monetary policy stance and economic outlook.

TENTATIVE – JPY BOJ Press Conference: Offers additional context on monetary policy decisions and economic assessments.

6:00 PM – USD Federal Funds Rate: The Federal Reserve’s decision on the benchmark interest rate, impacting borrowing costs and economic activity.

6:00 PM – USD FOMC Economic Projections: Provides forecasts on economic indicators like GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment.

6:30 PM – USD FOMC Statement: Details the rationale behind the Fed’s monetary policy decision

9:45 PM – USD FOMC Press Conference: Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses the media, offering insights into future monetary policy.

9:45 PM – NZD GDP Q/Q: Measures the quarterly change in New Zealand’s economic output, indicating economic health.

Thursday, March 20

12:30 AM – AUD Employment Change: Shows the change in the number of employed people in Australia, reflecting labor market strength.

12:30 AM – AUD Unemployment Rate: Indicates the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in Australia.

7:00 AM – GBP Claimant Count Change: Represents the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK.

8:30 AM – CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment: The Swiss National Bank’s evaluation of economic conditions and monetary policy stance.

8:30 AM – CHF SNB Policy Rate: Decision on Switzerland’s benchmark interest rate, affecting borrowing costs

9:00 AM – CHF SNB Press Conference: Provides further insights into the SNB’s monetary policy decisions.

12:00 PM – GBP Monetary Policy Summary: The Bank of England’s overview of monetary policy decisions and economic assessments.

12:00 PM – GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: Details how each Monetary Policy Committee member voted regarding the UK’s interest rate.

9:00 AM – GBP Official Bank Rate: The Bank of England’s decision on the benchmark interest rate

9:00 AM – GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks: Remarks from the Governor of the Bank of England, potentially offering insights into future monetary policy.

12:30 PM – USD Unemployment Claims: The number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the U.S., indicating labor market health.

4:50 PM – CAD BOC Gov Macklem Speaks: Comments from the Governor of the Bank of Canada, providing insights into monetary policy.

Friday, March 21

12:30 PM – CAD Core Retail Sales M/M: Measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in Canada, excluding automobiles.

12:30 PM – CAD Retail Sales M/M: Reflects the total value of sales at the retail level in Canada, indicating consumer spending trends.

Global Economic Overview

The global economy faces a complex landscape characterized by trade tensions and policy shifts:

Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade disputes, particularly involving the U.S., have introduced uncertainties in global markets. Protectionist measures and shifting trade strategies could disrupt global trade, with goods trade facing uncertainty. Currency Fluctuations: The U.S. dollar has experienced volatility amid changing trade policies and geopolitical developments. These fluctuations can impact global investment flows, inflation, and borrowing costs.

Oil Market Dynamics: The International Energy Agency’s March 2025 report indicates that global oil markets are under pressure, with supply constraints and demand fluctuations influencing prices.

Economic Outlook: The global economic expansion has slowed for a second consecutive month, with decelerating services offsetting improvements in the goods-producing sector. Cost pressures have intensified, while employment and business optimism levels have declined

Fundamental analysis :

Conclusion: Trading Strategies for the Week

• USD: Watch for retail sales data and the Fed decision. If the Fed signals it will keep interest rates high, it could be bullish for the USD. If they hint at rate cuts, the USD could turn bearish.
• JPY: The BoJ decision could trigger strong moves in JPY pairs, especially USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. A shift toward tighter policy would be bullish for JPY, while maintaining loose policy could be bearish.
• GBP & CAD: Inflation reports will be the key drivers. Higher inflation could lead to bullish momentum for GBP and CAD, while signs of slowing inflation may result in a bearish reaction.
• Gold & Oil: Gold traders should watch the Fed’s stance—lower rate expectations could be bullish for gold, while steady or higher rates may be bearish. Oil traders should monitor geopolitical risks and inventory data, as supply concerns could push prices higher, while increased production might lead to a bearish trend.

Technical analysis:

As we can see in the picture below , Nasdaq on the daily timeframe is extremely bearish but in the last few days we can see that price is failing to break through to the downside, now this does not mean that the bear run is over as the market is bearish not because of the technical but it is bearish because of the fundamentals. So, what we know when it comes to the markets in these times is that price will follow with the turmoil of the world and continue to plummet, but it still needs to follow market structure and grab liquidity, taking orders out the markets. This means that we can expect deep pullbacks and liquidity hunts. I have marked out the swing highs on  the daily time frame for where we can expect possible liquidity grabs and safe stop loss placements. Remember that this is merely my outlook  on the markets coming from my experience where I have traded and learnt from mistakes made from previous times of turmoil.

Advice for the week:

Trade safe, take profits where you see it and do not trade against the trend. Best of all trust your analysis.